Three days of testing in Bahrain. Here’s what looked real and what was sandbagging.

Mileage leaders#

TeamTotal lapsIssues
McLaren467None
Red Bull451Day 2 morning hydraulic
Williams442None
Mercedes428Day 3 ERS issue
Ferrari407Day 1 power unit reliability
Aston Martin372Multiple software issues

McLaren’s reliability on a brand-new car is notable. They’ve clearly done their homework on the dyno. Aston Martin had a visibly difficult test — the new chassis kept stopping for software resets.

Lap time analysis#

Lap times in testing are fundamentally meaningless without context. But for what it’s worth:

  • Norris’s quickest on day 3, soft tyre, low fuel: 1:30.3
  • Verstappen’s quickest on day 3, soft tyre, low fuel: 1:30.5
  • Piastri: 1:30.7
  • Leclerc: 1:31.0

The 0.7s gap to Ferrari at the front of the grid is surprising. Either Ferrari are sandbagging (they have a history of it) or they have real pace deficit. Race weekend will tell.

Long runs#

This is more useful than single-lap pace. Red Bull’s long-run pace looked competitive but not dominant. McLaren consistently within a tenth per lap. Mercedes about three tenths off.

What I’d watch for in race 1#

  • Does Mercedes have race pace they hid in testing?
  • Can Ferrari fix whatever was wrong with their PU reliability?
  • Is McLaren’s testing pace transferable to a race weekend?

Spoiler: now that we have race 1 in the books, the answer to all three was “not really”. Same teams up front as last year.