Time for the annual self-humiliation: writing predictions in January that I’ll have to face in December.

Drivers’ Champion#

Verstappen. He’s won four in a row and the regulations are stable. Until McLaren shows they can beat him over a full season instead of in flashes, betting against Max is a bad gamble.

But: there’s a real chance Norris takes the title if McLaren hits the new regs better than Red Bull. I’d put it at 35% Norris, 50% Verstappen, 15% other.

Constructors’ Champion#

McLaren. Even if Norris doesn’t win the drivers’, McLaren has two strong scoring cars while Red Bull has Max plus a question mark. Tsunoda needs to consistently finish in points to keep Red Bull in the constructors’ fight.

Most race wins#

Verstappen, by a lot. I’m guessing 9–10 wins. Norris 5–7. Piastri 2–4. Other teams might pick up a wet race or strategy win, but the front three drivers should win 95% of the season.

Surprises I’m betting on#

  1. Williams scores a podium. Their long-run pace in Bahrain testing was real. With the right Safety Car timing they can get one this year.
  2. Audi works themselves into 6th in constructors. New manufacturer, new investment, they have the engineering depth to step ahead of Aston Martin.
  3. A Verstappen DNF or two costs him the championship math early in the season. He’s been remarkably reliable but that streak ends eventually.
  4. Antonelli wins his first race. He’s not yet experienced, but in qualifying he can be devastating, and a wet/chaotic race could fall his way.

Predictions I won’t make#

  • Anyone retiring at the end of 2026
  • Any major team principal change
  • The Las Vegas GP being interesting (it never is)

Calibration check#

Last year I predicted McLaren would win constructors and Norris would push Max all year. Both correct. I also predicted Sainz would jump Williams up the standings — also correct. So I’m cautiously trusting my own judgement here.

What I got wrong in 2025: predicted Mercedes would have a stronger second half. They didn’t. Mercedes’ development trajectory was flatter than expected.

Let’s see how this year’s predictions hold up.