Hamilton’s first race weekend in Ferrari red is now behind us, and the talk about what this move means is finally grounded in actual data instead of speculation.

What we expected#

When the move was announced in 2024, everyone projected: Hamilton wins championships at Ferrari, ends the drought, retires as the most decorated F1 driver on the grandest team. Or alternatively: Hamilton struggles with a car that doesn’t suit him and finishes Vettel-style.

What’s actually happening#

Round 1: P5 in Bahrain. Solid drive, beat Leclerc by 0.4s in qualifying.
Round 2: P6 in Jeddah. Lost a position to Russell who’s now driving for Mercedes.
Round 3: P4 in Australia. Got past Albon late. Best Ferrari result.

That’s a P5–P6–P4 stretch. Solid. Not exceptional. Not embarrassing.

The truthful read#

Ferrari built a car that has not stepped forward enough. The SF-26 is a refinement of the SF-25, with no major architectural changes. Leclerc and Hamilton are both around 0.3s off Verstappen and Norris in pure pace, which is consistent with a P3-tier car.

Hamilton’s not the problem. The car is. He’s matching Leclerc — and Leclerc is one of the fastest drivers on the grid in qualifying.

Long-term outlook#

If Ferrari develops the car aggressively in-season, Hamilton can win a race or two. If they don’t, P3 in the championship is realistic. Title contention requires a major step that Ferrari hasn’t shown yet.

The mental side is also worth watching. Hamilton has been gracious about the move, but you can see in interviews that he expected to be fighting for wins by now. How he handles a championship-less season at 41 will be interesting.

Russell#

Mercedes promoted Russell to the senior driver role with the new George Russell-Antonelli pairing. Russell had a stronger weekend than Hamilton in Jeddah. The question for 2026 isn’t “who’s better in the same car” — it’s “who has better engineering support”. Russell has the entire Mercedes engineering team behind him; Hamilton has a Ferrari team that’s still adjusting to him.