Time for the annual self-humiliation: writing predictions in January that I’ll have to face in December.

Drivers’ Champion

Verstappen. He’s won four in a row and the regulations are stable. Until McLaren shows they can beat him over a full season instead of in flashes, betting against Max is a bad gamble.

But: there’s a real chance Norris takes the title if McLaren hits the new regs better than Red Bull. I’d put it at 35% Norris, 50% Verstappen, 15% other.

Tyre strategy looks simple on TV. Soft, medium, hard, fastest theoretical race time wins. In reality the decision tree is much deeper, and a lot of armchair strategists make decisions based on incomplete information.

What teams know that we don’t

When you’re watching at home you see the lap times and the tyre age on the broadcast. Teams have:

• Per-tyre temperature data (4 corners + carcass)
• Real-time tyre wear estimation from sensors
• Track temperature gradient over the race distance
• Driver feedback in real-time about grip levels
• Historical data on how that specific compound behaves at that specific track in similar conditions
• Live competitor pace and strategy projections

This is why team radio calls sometimes look counterintuitive — they have data we don’t.

While we wait for the 2026 season to start, a quick look back at five Verstappen overtakes that I find myself rewatching every time the racing gets boring.

1. Brazil 2016 — half the field in the rain

Sixteen-year-old Max in a Toro Rosso … no, wait, this was 2016 and he was already at Red Bull. The wet race at Interlagos. He started 4th, dropped to 16th after a hairy moment, then carved back up to 3rd in the closing laps. The overtake on Vettel through the senna esses was peak commitment in conditions where most drivers were just trying to stay on.