Three races in, the championship is genuinely competitive. Let’s break down where things stand.
| Pos | Driver | Points | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Verstappen | 71 | 2 |
| 2 | Norris | 56 | 1 |
| 3 | Piastri | 41 | 0 |
| 4 | Leclerc | 39 | 0 |
| 5 | Hamilton | 31 | 0 |
Max leads by 15 points. That sounds comfortable until you remember that’s barely more than one DNF away from being level.
Looking at the last decade of openings:
Hamilton’s first race weekend in Ferrari red is now behind us, and the talk about what this move means is finally grounded in actual data instead of speculation.
When the move was announced in 2024, everyone projected: Hamilton wins championships at Ferrari, ends the drought, retires as the most decorated F1 driver on the grandest team. Or alternatively: Hamilton struggles with a car that doesn’t suit him and finishes Vettel-style.
McLaren’s last two seasons have been a slow-motion turnaround. From 2022’s slow start to 2025’s championship contention. There are several reasons this happened, and most of them have nothing to do with the car.
The MTC opened a new full-scale wind tunnel in late 2023. Before that, McLaren had been using the Toyota Cologne facility on a contract basis — which meant limited tunnel time and travel costs eating budget. Owning their tunnel changed everything: more correlation runs, faster development cycle, better confidence in design decisions.
Time for the annual self-humiliation: writing predictions in January that I’ll have to face in December.
Verstappen. He’s won four in a row and the regulations are stable. Until McLaren shows they can beat him over a full season instead of in flashes, betting against Max is a bad gamble.
But: there’s a real chance Norris takes the title if McLaren hits the new regs better than Red Bull. I’d put it at 35% Norris, 50% Verstappen, 15% other.